The Best Federal TSP Strategy
Federal Thrift Savings Plan Automated Investment Advice
--- Our Most Widely Used Strategy ---
Taking Control Urgently Matters
Diversify and Rebalance? Why
The financial industry has hypnotized us
into believing diversification and
rebalancing is the only worthy investment
strategy. But diversification inherently
means owning a little bit of everything —
which is the formula for achieving precisely
average performance! Rebalancing further ensures
won't stray far from average. No other industry
proclaims average performance is the best
you can achieve. Fortunately, it's not true
Change the Game! To achieve a different result
requires a different approach. Price momentum has long been proven
the best predictor of future returns. Simply
by owning momentum leaders and avoiding
momentum laggards one can simultaneously
improve returns and reduce risk of loss. No
diversification compromise! SectorSurfer
further maximizes performance utilizing
digital signal processing theory and
automated strategy tuning.
An Extra 10%
Really Matters Before Retirement:
Egg Value chart
illustrates how an additional 10% annual
return compounds over 15 years to produce a
nest egg four times the value it would have
otherwise had. The earlier you start, the
greater the multiple. It really matters!
Retirement: The Nest Egg Annual Income
chart illustrates how portfolio return
affects the inflation-adjusted annual income
you can take, assuming a $100k
nest egg, 2.5% inflation, and 30 years of
retirement to fund. In the illustrated
example, investing in the S&P 500 would
likely allow an income of $14,000/yr.
However, earning an extra 10% increases it to
$36,000/year. Again, it really matters!
The Trend is Your Friend
Trends and fads are an inherent part of
human character. It takes time for
information to spread, to be understood, and
to be acted on. This creates momentum.
momentum is found in all capital
markets, including stocks, bonds,
treasuries, and currencies. By its very definition,
"trend" means that information from the recent
past tells you something about the near future.
SectorSurfer's trend analysis algorithms use modern digital
signal processing theory to optimally
extract trend signals from noisy market
True Sector Rotation The
market cycle is tied to the economic cycle.
Each market sector performs best during a
portion of the economic cycle. If you think
of each market sector as a piston in your
investment engine, the smoothest, most
powerful ride will be achieved when each of
the major market sectors is represented in
your portfolio ... but only while each is
delivering its power stroke.
By owning only the top trend
leaders and avoiding trend laggards one can
simultaneously improve returns and reduce
risk of loss. That's True Sector Rotation!
Diversify and Rebalance? Diversification inherently yields
precisely average performance. Master investor Warren Buffet
"Wide diversification is only
required when investors do not understand
what they are doing.
Risk is About Losing Money!
The definition of risk depends on who you ask. The financial industry
of variation (CV) to measure risk, which tells you how
wiggly the line on the chart is, but not the
probability of losing real money. Treating
both up and down-moves equally as risk is an
unfortunate consequence. Only down-moves
contribute to real loss. SectorSurfer's risk
measure is the
a 15% loss
in a year.
Measures Market Health
Not only do SectorSurfer's trend-following
algorithms inherently steer around and avoid
poorly performing funds, but its StormGuard
Indicator monitors overall market health
and advises a move to the safety of a money
market fund when market storms approach. The StormGuard Indicator is
calculated daily from a basket of broad
Optimized for Minimum Probability of Loss
The StormGuard Indicator optimally tunes
itself for the minimum probability of loss
according to the character of the
constituent funds/stocks of each
SectorSurfer Strategy by balancing the
probability of whipsaw loss from reacting
to market dips against the
probability of loss from reacting too slowly
to major downturns.
Diversify and Rebalance? Warren Buffet instructs:"Risk can be
greatly reduced by concentrating on only a
SectorSurfer practicesserial diversificationby owning many very different things,
just one at a time.
Four Steps to Get Started 1. View the short My
Strategies Tour video. 2. Click
, pick a Strategy, or create your own. 3. Check
charted performance by clicking
Edit the name and add notes.
After clicking your email alert:
Four Steps for Trade Alerts 1. See
which ticker symbols to sell and buy. 2.
Click your brokerage link and go make the
trade. 4. Click the
button. You're done!
• Short video demo showing how to select or custom build
SectorSurfer Online User Manual details all
the features and functions.
Subscription Plans range from Free to just a monthly
pittance for Premium Strategies.
• Our will help you
quickly create an account to get you SectorSurfing.
SectorSurfer's validation is confirmed
validation of each principle detailed in the
Trend Signals Exist in Market Data
In his 1996 book
Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets,
Edgar Peters applied the Hurst Range/Scale
analysis method to data from all capital
markets, including stocks, bonds,
commodities, and treasuries. He found that they
all have a significant short-term trend component that
dissipates after numerous months.
• See Hurst Exponent Reveals Trends on
the Sector Rotation Theory Page for further
SectorSurfer's Performance is
How can we tell that the trend signal we
extract from the noisy market data really
does drive SectorSurfer's performance? The
Hurst exponent measures the quality of the
trend signal and has a month-end bump in its
character. This bump is a fingerprint
likewise found in the character of
SectorSurfer Strategy performance.
• See SectorSurfer's
Trend Fingerprint on the Sector Rotation Theory Page for
further technical information.
Trend Signals Exhibit
Stationarity refers to the character of a
random process remaining the same, such as
the distribution in heights of men, shoe
sizes for women, or trend lengths in market
data. Stationarity enables one to
confidently manufacture shoes of various
sizes even though the shoe size of the next
customer is unknown. Backtesting provides
assessment of market character. Stationarity
in market character enables strategy design
to learn from the past in order to improve
one's batting average for future investment
• See Trend
Signal Stationarity on the Sector Rotation Theory Page for
further technical information.
"Diversify and Rebalance" was born with MPT (Modern
Portfolio Theory) in 1950 when we had
rotary dial telephones. Today the telecom
industry has wireless digital cell phones
with touch screens, video cameras, voice
dialing, and GPS maps.
the financial industry is still selling us 1950s
diversify and rebalance?
Extracting the Trend Signal is Everything
If the EMH (efficient
market hypothesis) were true, the future
would be random and the
Hurst exponent of market data would be
exactly 0.5, but it's not, because market data
contains significant trends. A trend
means that information from the recent past
tells you something about the near future.
There is nothing more important than to
apply the best signal processing
technology available to extract the trend
signal from noisy market data to improve one's
investment batting average. (Here's why, MPT is blind to trends.)
Differential Signal Processing
One of the most fundamental methods for improving the
ratio in data communications is
to eliminate common mode noise via
differential signal processing. That's why it's built into
Ethernet and USB.
Most charting and analysis software
evaluates ticker symbols independently,
which taints the analysis with common mode
market noise resulting in excess whipsaw
losses reacting to noise unrelated to its
own relative performance. SectorSurfer's
differential analysis eliminates common mode noise.
Matched Filter Theory
Matched filter theory provides the basis by which
trend signals can be optimally extracted
from noisy market data. The well-known academic paper
Profitability of Momentum Strategies, by Jegadeesh & Titman
used a simple equally weighted SMA (Simple
Moving Average) of length 6 months as its
trend measure. However, neither the SMA nor 6 months are near optimum
compared to the Matched Filter Theory solution. Simply put:
better trend analysis produce better results. See this
summary comparison and the Strategy Hall of Fame.
Automated Strategy Optimization
Investors familiar with technical chart
indicators know how tedious it is to
determine which indicators and what
parameters to use. SectorSurfer completely
automates this process for you. Better
results, less time!
SectorSurfer levels the playing field with Wall
Street by putting the power of
high performance investment algorithms in your hands. Its
True Sector Rotation
algorithm holds only the momentum leader during bull markets, and its
algorithm protects and grows your assets during bear
markets. Only by owning the trend leader and
avoiding the trend laggards can you simultaneously improve returns
Returns cannot be improved by diversification
alone. Diversification inherently produces average
by owning a bit of everything. To improve
returns, one must own only the trend leader and
avoid the trend laggards. By optimally extracting
trend signals from noisy market data and owning
only the trend leader SectorSurfer can produce
higher returns as shown by example below.
--- Click link for more information. ---
White dot: S&P500. Yellow dot: SectorSurfer.
Probability of Loss:
We believe that risk is about losing money,
not about how wiggly the line on the chart
is. We believe that treating both up and
down-moves equally as risk is an error
because only down-moves contribute to
real loss. SectorSurfer's risk measure is
the probability of a 15% loss in a year,
as shown in the example chart below.
--- Click link for more information. ---
White dot: S&P500. Yellow dot: SectorSurfer.
True Sector Rotation:
True Sector Rotation is the method of owning the one, and only one,
best trending fund at any time. Since half of the market
sectors will, by definition, be beating the S&P 500 at
any time, owning only the trend leader is an excellent
way to beat the market.
Market data contains trends, and a trend means
that something from the past can tell you something
about the future. Thus, extracting trend signals from
noisy market data is the whole game.
extracts trends from noisy market date to
improve your investment batting average.
It works for ETFs, mutual funds and stocks.
Market storms are much larger than market corrections
and require special detection methods. SectorSurfer's
StormGuard algorithm is designed to find the optimum
balance between reacting too quickly and producing
whipsaw losses, versus reacting too slowly and getting
hurt by the market storm.
StormGuard-Armor is our highest performance market
sentiment indicator. It examines three separate sources
of market data to derive whether the market is safe for
investing. By focusing on Safety First, not only are
losses reduced, but you keep more of your hard earned
returns. StormGuard-Armor is in fact the highest
performance market direction indicator on the market! Click for more information.
Federal TSP Strategy Performance
SectorSurfer's Federal Thrift Savings Plan Strategy
achieves the performance depicted by the yellow equity
curve on the chart below simply by determining which of
the TSP funds has momentum leadership and owning only
that fund for the next month. SectorSurfer completely
automates the process of selecting the best fund to own
— emotional bias is gone! Strategies are evaluated daily
and an email/text Trade Alert is sent typically about
2.2 times per year when momentum leadership changes.
Compare its performance against any other TSP strategy
service and you'll know why our $10/month subscription
fee is a bargain. Click each of the sliders above for a
more complete description of how and why SectorSurfer works so well.
To add this to your My Strategies list,
click the icon to open the Select-a-Strategy popup window
TSP Thrift Savings Plan from
Savings Plan" Strategy Design
This high performance Strategy was designed to utilize the
True Sector Rotation algorithm during bull markets to select and own
the best trending of the various stock funds (TSP C-Fund, S-Fund,
I-Fund, and various Lifecycle Funds), and use the
StormGuard-Armor algorithm to signal a retreat to the fixed income
fund TSP-F when a dangerous bear market threatens.
StormGuard-Armor is the market's preeminent high
performance indicator for determining market direction. The TSP-G
and TSP-F funds are not mixed with the True Sector Rotation
candidate funds because their presence in the selection process
actually reduces the decision quality and results in somewhat lower
returns and higher risk for technical reasons explained
Thrift Savings Plan offers a set of 10 funds providing exposure to
large cap (TSP C-Fund), small cap (TSP S-Fund), fixed income (TSP
F-Fund), government securities (TSP G-Fund), international stocks
(TSP I-Fund), and five Lifecycle funds (TSP L-Funds). By law, most
of these funds must be invested in a portfolio designed to replicate
a specific market index. Unfortunately there are no public ticker
symbols for the TSP funds and there is no web-published historical
data available for any of them suitable for use with services such
as SectorSurfer. Fortunately, the market indices associated with the
TSP funds do have ticker symbols and do have available historic
market data. SectorSurfer utilizes the historic market data for
these indices as proxy data for each of the TSP funds as detailed in
the table below.
Federal TSP Funds
Proxy Symbol and Name
TSP G-Fund: Government
VFISX: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury
TSP F-Fund: Fixed Income
AGG: Barclay's Aggregate Bond - iShares
TSP C-Fund: Common Stock Index
SP-DA: - S&P 500 Index Div. Adjusted
TSP S-Fund: Small Cap Stock Index
DWCPF: Dow Jones US Completion Index
TSP I-Fund: International Stock Index
BTEAX: DWS Inst: EAFE Index
TSP L-Income: 74% G, 12% C, 6% F
no satisfactory proxy available
TSP L-2020: Lifecycle 2020 retirement
STLCX: BlackRock Inst: Lifepath 2020
TSP L-2030: Lifecycle 2030 retirement
STLDX: BlackRock Inst: Lifepath 2030
TSP L-2040: Lifecycle 2040 retirement
STLEX: BlackRock Inst: Lifepath 2040
TSP L-2050: Lifecycle 2050 retirement
STLFX: BlackRock Inst: Lifepath 2050
While "proxy" funds are an excellent representation of TSP
performance, they in fact are not exact. However, their
character is sufficiently similar to adequately perform their
intended functions for SectorSurfer's asset class rotation
Follow these steps to quickly set up your SectorSurfer account to use this
(click to read more)
1. Click the Signup Wizard
button on the right to create your account. It costs
nothing to open an account and experiment with custom strategies or
make use our totally Free Strategies. See
Member Plans Page for
details about Free and Premium Memberships.
a) On the
Create an Account
screen specify your username, password, full name, and email address.
Next is theAccount Information
Screen. Complete the below steps and then click
Section A: Optionally add a backup email address or
cell text number for your Trade Alerts. Click the
Section A: Optionally enter your Referrer's name to
give them credit. Review the Referral-Name you'll give others. -
Section B: Review the subscription options and click checkbox
to acknowledge having read it. -
Section C: Optionally order a subscription
(required to receive Trade Alerts for this Strategy). Acknowledge
c) Next is the Application
Settings Screen to determine how you would like your
Trade Alerts handled and then click
Now Are a SectorSurfer!
2. The My
will automatically be your next destination. This is your definition list of
a)Please watch the short video demo.
will save you time and frustration. Click its icon in the
upper left of the page.
Note the other
help resources in the
upper left and bottom of the page.
the Example Strategies
provided. Mouse-over the icons and ticker symbols. Click things to see what they do.
d) To import the above
Strategy into your My Strategies execute the following steps:
- Click the
in the 2nd row to get the
Select a Strategy popup screen.
- Scroll down until you see the Strategy
name matching the above Strategy, then click its line to highlight it.
- Then click the
button near the bottom to import this Strategy into your personal
Now You're Really SectorSurfing!
Hard Work ...
... While You
Have a Life.
• Typically just 3 to 5 Trade Alerts per year.
• SectorSurfer signals - you make the trade.
• Select a ready-made Strategy from a list, or
try your ideas with your own custom design.
• Its as easy or complex as you'd like it to be.
How to Become a SectorSurfer
How We Work
• Analyze each of your
strategies every day.
• Send a trade alert if
action is required.
• Keep you invested in
only the best funds.
• Reduce your risk of
loss in the market.
• Our complex signal
identify real trends in
noisy market data.
• Steering around the
potholes and sitting
out market storms
improves both risk
and return measures.
• Dedicated computers
• We don't touch your
You make the trades.
• We don't touch your
credit card. Amazon
Payments processes all
• We don't provide
financial advice that
is specific for your
We'll do the Hard Work ...
... While You go Have a Life!
"This product stands
like an oak tree amid a forest of saplings. Over the years I
have examined dozens of investment advisory services, but this
one is the best by far. As a retired USAF officer, of particular importance
is their popular TSP Thrift Savings Plan strategy designed for
military/federal employees. I've been an enthusiastic SectorSurfer since January 2011."
Les Mosier, Chaplain, LtCol,
"I can tell you with certainty that SectorSurfer stands
in a class of its own as the premier investment tool for
individual investors. Its high performance algorithms literally
level the playing field for individual investors against the
big traders on Wall Street and will provide
you with the confidence and to wisely manage your own
Richard Erkes, Former Chair of the State of Illinois
Founding member of the Chicago Board of Options
Former Program Director of the LA AAII Chapter.
"It is very satisfying to see my
returns beating the market averages month after month. It even made my wife's
restrictive and excessively diversified government retirement
account perform well. This investment tool
tops my list!"
Warren Hyland, CEO,
finally pulled the trigger on the
SectorSurfer Fidelity KickAss Strategy. Since then the
market has not been as hot AND
yet I notice that the fund recommended by Sector Surfer
is doing very well. My
GAUD this is really going to work! What
was once only an academic understanding of your methods
has sunk in. Thank you for doing the hard work. Dan Wahl, Design Engineer, "IceCube" South Pole
Neutrino Observatory Physical Sciences Laboratory, University of
Wisconsin - Madison
"The effort/time you have put into your web site has
produced outstanding results. I spend a lot of time on
finances, and your web site is the finest I have ever
seen. I am an ex-fighter pilot, land
developer, and a full-time trader for the last 10 years." Joe Schuchter, Full-time trader.
SectorSurfer's algorithms doing all the work, I get much better
results and have more time in the day for real life. I used to spend hours
each day sorting through funds looking for winners. "
Chris Feise, Retired
Professor Washington State University
Former Director of Center for Sustaining
Agriculture and Natural Resource
"I had no idea which
funds to own until I found SectorSurfer. Now I know what to
do and when to do it. Most importantly, I know SectorSurfer will look out for
me when I'm busy taking care of business."
Kim Cahuas, President, Western Reserve Technology
"I used to be literally afraid to look at my retirement
account, but Sector Surfer thankfully keeps track of it
for me now and always keeps me in the best funds. It
really is amazing and gives great peace of mind!"
Brandon Hulet, Teacher
Snohomish County, Washington
Notice: Your registered use of this site is
considered equivalent to your signature as evidence of your
True Sector Rotation, StormGuard, StormGuard-Armor, Own-the-Bubble, TopDog
Stocks, Polymorphic Momentum, Tactical Diversification, Temporal
Portfolio Theory, and SumGrowth
Strategies, are all trademarks of
SumGrowth Strategies, LLC. Seattle WA 98125. Copyright 2010-2016 SumGrowth Strategies,
LLC. All Rights Reserved.
LLC is not a
advisor and does not provide professional financial investment
advice specific to your life situation. SectorSurfer is
algorithmic strategy analysis tool that produces trade signals according
to the set of funds provided for analysis.
Please Read More Here.