TSP Rollover to IRA
Escape the TSP's Over-Diversified Funds
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Returns |
Safety |
Simplicity |
Control |
Examples |
Why
Taking Control Urgently Matters
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Diversify and Rebalance? Why
Be Average?
The financial industry has hypnotized us
into believing diversification and
rebalancing is the only worthy investment
strategy. But diversification inherently
means owning a little bit of everything —
which is the formula for achieving precisely
average performance! Rebalancing further ensures
we
won't stray far from average. No other industry
proclaims average performance is the best
you can achieve. Fortunately, it's not true
here either.
Change the Game!
To achieve a different result
requires a different approach. Price momentum has long been proven
the best predictor of future returns. Simply
by owning momentum leaders and avoiding
momentum laggards one can simultaneously
improve returns and reduce risk of loss. No
diversification compromise! SectorSurfer
further maximizes performance utilizing
digital signal processing theory and
automated strategy tuning.
An Extra 10%
Really Matters
Before Retirement:
The
Nest
Egg Value chart
illustrates how an additional 10% annual
return compounds over 15 years to produce a
nest egg four times the value it would have
otherwise had. The earlier you start, the
greater the multiple. It really matters!
After
Retirement: The Nest Egg Annual Income
chart illustrates how portfolio return
affects the inflation-adjusted annual income
you can take, assuming a $100k
nest egg, 2.5% inflation, and 30 years of
retirement to fund. In the illustrated
example, investing in the S&P 500 would
likely allow an income of $14,000/yr.
However, earning an extra 10% increases it to
$36,000/year. Again, it really matters!
Additional Resources
• The Economist:
Momentum in Financial Markets.
A compilation of industry studies and
expert opinions.
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What is True Sector Rotation?
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The Trend is Your Friend
Trends and fads are an inherent part of
human character. It takes time for
information to spread, to be understood, and
to be acted on. This creates momentum.
Price
momentum is found in all capital
markets, including stocks, bonds,
treasuries, and currencies. By its very definition,
"trend" means that information from the recent
past tells you something about the near future.
SectorSurfer's trend analysis algorithms use modern digital
signal processing theory to optimally
extract trend signals from noisy market
data.
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True Sector Rotation
The
market cycle is tied to the economic cycle.
Each market sector performs best during a
portion of the economic cycle. If you think
of each market sector as a piston in your
investment engine, the smoothest, most
powerful ride will be achieved when each of
the major market sectors is represented in
your portfolio ... but only while each is
delivering its power stroke.
By owning only the top trend
leaders and avoiding trend laggards one can
simultaneously improve returns and reduce
risk of loss.
That's True Sector Rotation!
Diversify and Rebalance?
Diversification inherently yields
precisely average performance. Master investor Warren Buffet
instructs us:
"Wide diversification is only
required when investors do not understand
what they are doing.
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Additional Resources
• Short video demo on
how True Sector Rotation
produces higher returns.
•
Sector Rotation Theory Page
provides theory summary and technical
explanations.
• The Economist:
Momentum in Financial Markets.
A
must read for momentum doubters.
• Jegadeesh & Titman
Profitability of Momentum Strategies.
Academic momentum paper.
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Instructive Video |
How
StormGuard Reduces Risk
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Risk is About Losing Money!
The definition of risk depends on who you ask. The financial industry
uses
the coefficient
of variation (CV) to measure risk, which tells you how
wiggly the line on the chart is, but not the
probability of losing real money. Treating
both up and down-moves equally as risk is an
unfortunate consequence. Only down-moves
contribute to real loss. SectorSurfer's risk
measure is the
probability of
a 15% loss
in a year.
StormGuard
Measures Market Health
Not only do SectorSurfer's trend-following
algorithms inherently steer around and avoid
poorly performing funds, but its StormGuard
Indicator monitors overall market health
and advises a move to the safety of a money
market fund when market storms approach. The StormGuard Indicator is
calculated daily from a basket of broad
market indicators.
Optimized for Minimum Probability of Loss
The StormGuard Indicator optimally tunes
itself for the minimum probability of loss
according to the character of the
constituent funds/stocks of each
SectorSurfer Strategy by balancing the
probability of whipsaw loss from reacting
too quickly
to market dips against the
probability of loss from reacting too slowly
to major downturns.
Diversify and Rebalance?
Warren Buffet instructs:
"Risk can be
greatly reduced by concentrating on only a
few holdings."
SectorSurfer practices
serial diversification
by owning many very different things,
just one at a time.
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Additional Resources
• Short video demo about how SectorSurfer
makes lower risk possible.
•
StormGuard Technical Details in the
SectorSurfer Online User Manual.
•
Sector Rotation Theory Page
provides theory summary and technical
explanations.
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Instructive Video |
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Additional
Resources
• Short video demo showing how to select or custom build
Strategies.
•
SectorSurfer Online User Manual details all
the features and functions.
•
Subscription Plans range from Free to just a monthly
pittance for Premium Strategies.
• Our will help you
quickly create an account to get you SectorSurfing.
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Instructive Video |
SectorSurfer's Algorithm
Validation
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Overview
SectorSurfer's validation is confirmed
by the
validation of each principle detailed in the
paragraphs below.
Trend Signals Exist in Market Data
In his 1996 book
Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets,
Edgar Peters applied the Hurst Range/Scale
analysis method to data from all capital
markets, including stocks, bonds,
commodities, and treasuries. He found that they
all have a significant short-term trend component that
dissipates after numerous months.
• See Hurst Exponent Reveals Trends on
the Sector Rotation Theory Page for further
technical information.
Momentum Strategies Really Work
When you can get the media, industry, and
academia to agree that something is real and
works, then you know you really have
something. These three momentum trading
articles do just that:
• The Economist:
Momentum in Financial Markets. A survey
of strategy results and expert commentary.
• Columbine Capital
Price Momentum - a Twenty Year Research Effort. Industry momentum white paper.
• Jegadeesh & Titman
Profitability of Momentum Strategies.
A fundamental academic momentum paper.
SectorSurfer's Performance is
Trend Based
How can we tell that the trend signal we
extract from the noisy market data really
does drive SectorSurfer's performance? The
Hurst exponent measures the quality of the
trend signal and has a month-end bump in its
character. This bump is a fingerprint
likewise found in the character of
SectorSurfer Strategy performance.
• See SectorSurfer's
Trend Fingerprint on the Sector Rotation Theory Page for
further technical information.
Trend Signals Exhibit
Stationarity
Stationarity refers to the character of a
random process remaining the same, such as
the distribution in heights of men, shoe
sizes for women, or trend lengths in market
data. Stationarity enables one to
confidently manufacture shoes of various
sizes even though the shoe size of the next
customer is unknown. Backtesting provides
assessment of market character. Stationarity
in market character enables strategy design
to learn from the past in order to improve
one's batting average for future investment
choices.
• See Trend
Signal Stationarity on the Sector Rotation Theory Page for
further technical information.
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SectorSurfer's
Improved
Technology
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Background
"Diversify and Rebalance" was born with MPT (Modern
Portfolio Theory) in 1950 when we had
rotary dial telephones. Today the telecom
industry has wireless digital cell phones
with touch screens, video cameras, voice
dialing, and GPS maps.
But,
the financial industry is still selling us 1950s
diversify and rebalance?
Extracting the Trend Signal is Everything
If the EMH (efficient
market hypothesis) were true, the future
would be random and the
Hurst exponent of market data would be
exactly 0.5, but it's not, because market data
contains significant trends. A trend
means that information from the recent past
tells you something about the near future.
There is nothing more important than to
apply the best signal processing
technology available to extract the trend
signal from noisy market data to improve one's
investment batting average. (Here's why, MPT is blind to trends.)
Differential Signal Processing
One of the most fundamental methods for improving the
signal-to-noise
ratio in data communications is
to eliminate common mode noise via
differential signal processing. That's why it's built into
Ethernet and USB.
Most charting and analysis software
evaluates ticker symbols independently,
which taints the analysis with common mode
market noise resulting in excess whipsaw
losses reacting to noise unrelated to its
own relative performance. SectorSurfer's
simultaneous
differential analysis eliminates common mode noise.
Matched Filter Theory
Matched filter theory provides the basis by which
trend signals can be optimally extracted
from noisy market data. The well-known academic paper
Profitability of Momentum Strategies, by Jegadeesh & Titman
used a simple equally weighted SMA (Simple
Moving Average) of length 6 months as its
trend measure. However, neither the SMA nor 6 months are near optimum
compared to the Matched Filter Theory solution. Simply put:
better trend analysis produce better results. See this
summary comparison and the Strategy Hall of Fame.
Automated Strategy Optimization
Investors familiar with technical chart
indicators know how tedious it is to
determine which indicators and what
parameters to use. SectorSurfer completely
automates this process for you. Better
results, less time!
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This Page is About Knowing It's Possible
You can roll over
your TSP funds into an IRA account, but only after retirement or
otherwise leaving federal or military service. We recommend
contacting a representative of one of the major
brokerage or fund management companies, such as
Fidelity, Vanguard, T.Rowe Price and others, who can provide
detailed advice about what is possible and who can answer questions specific
to your situation. We recommend selecting one of them on the basis of the
funds, ETFs, or stocks associated with investment strategies that
suit your interest and investment style.
See Example Strategies
here.
Why Consider a Rollover
to an IRA?
In real estate they ask "what
are the three most important factors in determining value?" The answer
is: location, location, and location. Similarly, the answer to this
paragraph's title question is: returns, returns, and risk. They
will totally determine your retirement lifestyle. To address both
risk and return optimally, you have to escape from the TSP's over-diversified
funds which inherently return potential. If you've not yet clicked each of the "Control",
"Returns" and "Safety"
topics above (in the slider) and read them and viewed
their short videos that crystallize their points, then now is the time
to do so.
Article Snippets and Links
The helpful article snippets below
are provided with their source references as a resource for you in
determining what to do.
From: My Federal
Retirement http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/367.cfm
Guide to Thrift Savings Plan and Individual
Retirement Accounts
Can I move money from my TSP account into my IRA?
Generally, yes. However, you can move your money only from
the TSP into a "traditional IRA" or from a traditional IRA into
the TSP. A traditional IRA is an individual retirement account
described in § 408(a) of the I.R.C. or an individual retirement
annuity described in I.R.C. § 408(b). It does not include a Roth
IRA, a SIMPLE IRA, or a Coverdell Education Savings Account
(formerly known as an education IRA). There are two ways to move
your money between the TSP and a traditional IRA. You can
transfer your payment by asking that it be made directly from
your traditional IRA into the TSP (or directly from the TSP into
your traditional IRA). You may also roll over your payment, in
which case the payment is made to you from the TSP (or your
traditional IRA) and you will have to deposit it yourself into
the traditional IRA (or the TSP). Note: Rollovers and transfers
are governed by different tax rules.
How do I transfer or roll over money between my
traditional IRA and my TSP account?
If you have left federal service or the uniformed services
and elect to withdraw your TSP account balance in a single
payment (or monthly payments over a period of less than 10
years), you can ask the TSP to transfer all or any portion of
your payment(s) directly to a traditional IRA. You can do this
by noting your request on your withdrawal form. You can also
roll over all or any portion of amounts that are paid to you.
Similarly, you can either transfer or roll over an age-based
in-service withdrawal into a traditional IRA.
If you transfer or roll over a tax-exempt balance into a
traditional IRA, it is your responsibility to keep track of the
amount of these contributions and report that amount to the IRS
on the appropriate form so that the nontaxable amount of any
future distribution(s) can be determined. If you ask the TSP to
transfer a payment from your account which includes a tax-exempt
balance and the IRA does not accept tax-exempt balances, the
tax-exempt portion of the intended transfer will be removed from
the amount that is being transferred and will be paid directly
to you.
What are the tax consequences if I transfer or roll
over money from the TSP to a traditional IRA?
If you request a transfer of your money, you do not pay taxes
(or an early withdrawal tax penalty, if you are under 59 ½ years
old) until you withdraw the money from the IRA. However, if you
receive the money directly, the TSP must withhold 20 percent for
federal income taxes even if you then decide to roll it over to
your IRA (which you can do within 60 days of receiving it).
If you decide to roll over your withdrawal after you receive
it, you can deposit personal funds into your IRA equal to the
amount withheld for taxes. Otherwise, the amount withheld
will itself be subject to taxes (and the early withdrawal tax
penalty, if applicable). These rules are the same if you decide
to transfer or roll over money from a traditional IRA to the
TSP.
For more information about mandatory tax withholding, see the
tax notice "Important Tax Information About Payments From Your
TSP Account," which is available from the TSP Web site (www.tsp.gov)
or from your agency or service.
Can I transfer my TSP account to the IRA of my
spouse?
Generally, no. Your spouse's IRA is not eligible to receive
your TSP account. However, a spouse can transfer to his or her
IRA amounts received from the TSP upon the death of a
participant or pursuant to a qualifying court order.
From: The
Military Wallet
http://themilitarywallet.com/thrift-savings-plan-tsp-ira-rollover/
Should You Rollover Your TSP Account Into an IRA?
If you have left
government or military service in recent years, then
there is a good chance you still have a
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) account in your name.
Personally, I'm a big fan of consolidating financial
accounts to make financial planning and management
easier to deal with. But the TSP is in it's own category
of financial accounts due to several factors that
separate it from other investment options, namely some
of the lowest expense ratios you will ever find. So
keeping your assets in the TSP may not be a bad option.
But sometimes it's best to simplify things and roll your
investments into fewer accounts.
The first thing you will need to do is determine if your
assets are eligible for distribution. The TSP has
certain criteria, so contact customer service through
the ThriftLine if in doubt.
Deciding to rollover TSP assets into an IRA
Once you determine your funds are eligible for
distribution, you need to decide what to do with those
funds. We previously discussed options for the TSP when
you leave the service in this article:
what should you do with your TSP when you leave the
military?
This article covers the main options, such as leaving
your funds within your TSP account,
rolling it into an IRA, roll your assets into a 401k
plan at your new employer, withdraw your funds (watch
out for
early withdrawal penalties), and roll your funds
into a qualified annuity.
The TSP has many similar features to a 401k plan, so
this article may also be helpful:
should you rollover a 401k into an IRA? Let's look
at the pros and cons of rolling over your Thrift Savings
Plan funds into an IRA.
Pros and cons of doing an IRA rollover
The TSP has some of the lowest expense ratios in the
investment industry and you will be hard pressed to find
mutual funds with expense ratios that low. You almost
certainly won't be able to find them in a 401k plan, as
most 401k plans have funds with relatively high expense
ratios.
An IRA, on the other hand, gives you better control over
your investment options, including the ability to invest
in a wide variety of stocks, bonds, funds, and other
investments that you can't use with the Thrift Savings
Plan or a 401k plan. You can also
open an IRA at many locations, including banks,
online discount brokers, mutual fund houses, etc.
Advantages of rolling your TSP into an IRA:
• Full control of investments
• More investment options
• Ability to control fees
• Portability
Advantages of leaving your funds in the TSP:
There are two main advantages to leaving your funds in
the TSP: the low expense ratios, and the possibility of
tax free withdrawals if you made contributions with tax
free funds. This last advantage could apply if you
contributed to your TSP plan while you were in a
tax free combat zone.
To see if you have any tax exempt money in your TSP,
look at the bottom of you balance sheet: you will see
"Tax Exempt Balance — $xxxx.xx." You may wish to keep
your TSP if you have a large amount of tax free
contributions because those contributions would have
been made without being taxed and that percentage of
your withdrawals would also be tax free – which is
virtually impossible to achieve in the civilian world!
Additional benefits to leaving your assets in
the TSP
You won't be charged any additional
fees to leave your funds in the Thrift Savings Plan
(plan expenses still apply), and it won't affect any of
your other investments, or ability to open other
retirement accounts.
Rolling over a TSP Account into an IRA
If you decide to roll your Thrift Savings Plan assets
into an IRA, then you have a few options to consider.
The first thing you will need to do is open an IRA if
you don't already have one. Here is a list of
what to look for when opening an IRA and some of the
best brokerages to open an IRA to help you.
Which option is the best?
There is no right or wrong option. If you prefer a
hands off approach with low fees, or if you have a large
amount of tax free contributions, then you may wish to
keep your funds in the Thrift Savings Plan. If, however,
you have a hands on investing approach, or simply wish
for more investment options, then rolling your TSP
assets into an IRA may be a better option for you. Be
sure to investigate your options thoroughly and make the
best decision based on your investment needs and risk
tolerance. Best of luck!
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